Molecular Cell

COVID-19 risk scores developed during the pandemic relied on measurements contemporaneous with infection, leaving unresolved whether the metabolic and inflammatory vulnerability they capture pre-existed as a stable trait or was triggered by acute illness. Here, using 501,946 UK Biobank participants whose blood was drawn between 2006 and 2010---at least ten years before SARS-CoV-2 emerged---we show that baseline proteomic and metabolic profiles predict both COVID-19 hospitalization (2,783 events; C-statistic =0.676 [0.666--0.686]) and COVID-19 mortality (1,564 deaths; C-statistic =0.730 [0.701--0.760]) from parsimonious, regularized feature sets. The IL-1 pathway index (xIL1, +0.093) was independently selected for hospitalization but not mortality, while the IL-6 trans-signaling index (xIL6, + 0.040) was selected for mortality but not hospitalization---a differential pathway weighting corroborated by independent LightGBM/SHAP analysis and mirroring the subsequent success of tocilizumab (anti-IL-6R) and the limited efficacy of anakinra (anti-IL-1R) in reducing COVID-19 mortality in randomized trials conducted years later. The mortality model was additionally characterized by central adiposity (waist-hip ratio, +0.386), a respiratory compromise index (xRSP, +0.149), and prodromal cardiovascular disease (pCVD, +0.246). These findings establish that vulnerability to a novel pathogen is, in substantial part, a pre-existing and measurable prodromal state, with implications for pandemic preparedness and population-level risk stratification.

Yang et al. recently published a systematic comparison of genetic effects on disease susceptibility and disease-specific mortality across nine common diseases and seven biobanks, concluding that susceptibility and survival architectures overlap only modestly. This is an important resource, but we argue that the current mortality genome-wide association studies (GWAS) require explicit power calibration before limited overlap can be interpreted biologically. Using two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) with positive-control exposures, we show that even a well-powered positive control, body mass index (BMI), instrumented by 855 genome-wide-significant variants, produces a clearly detectable effect for heart failure (HF) mortality, with only weaker evidence for chronic kidney disease (CKD) mortality. However, when BMI instruments were stratified into quartiles by exposure-association strength, the heart failure association remained nominally significant only in the two strongest quartiles and was not significant in the two weakest quartiles. Further, using household income as a weakly instrumented socio-economic contrast has insufficient power to detect moderate effects on any disease mortality outcome. These analyses indicate that current disease mortality GWAS may be insufficiently powered to detect shared effects. In contrast, the same BMI instrument set produced large and directionally coherent effects when applied to case-control GWAS of the matched six diseases, with the HF and prostate cancer associations preserved under a within-family BMI sensitivity analysis, and nominal support for CKD. The HF mortality association was also preserved in a within-family BMI sensitivity analysis. Similarly, genetically proxied household income was associated with HF risk in the case-control GWAS despite null associations with disease-specific mortality, consistent with limited power in the mortality GWAS. These findings indicate that the limited BMI-mortality evidence across several outcomes is unlikely to reflect a weak BMI instrument or dynastic artefacts alone and instead supports limited effective power in current disease-mortality GWAS.

Emerging evidence links the gut microbiome to sleep quality, yet measuring sleep at scale remains challenging. Commercial wearables, such as Fitbit, capture objective sleep and activity data in naturalistic settings. We integrated Fitbit data from a large, deeply-phenotyped cohort with paired lifestyle and health questionnaires. Wearable-derived measures aligned well with self-reported sleep, activity, and happiness. We identified dozens of covariate-adjusted associations between Fitbit-derived sleep features, lifestyle factors, and multi-omic data. Among molecular feature sets, the gut microbiome showed the greatest number of associations with sleep quality: butyrate-producing genera were positively associated with sleep and amplified the benefits of physical activity. Oscillospira, in particular, was consistently associated with better sleep. In blood, insulin, omega-3, and cortisol correlated with poorer sleep, whereas lower alcohol intake and mineral supplements correlated with better sleep. These robust, covariate-adjusted findings advance mechanistic understanding of the gut-sleep axis and broader molecular and lifestyle determinants of sleep quality.

Viral pneumonia is perpetuated by inflammatory circuits between activated T cells and monocyte-derived alveolar macrophages (MoAM). T cells and macrophages express ORAI1 and STIM1, which form calcium release-activated calcium (CRAC) channels that allow extracellular calcium entry in response to endoplasmic reticulum calcium store depletion. In a randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter phase 2 trial (CARDEA), Auxora, a CRAC channel inhibitor, reduced all-cause 30-day mortality by 56% in patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. Here, we report a multi-omics analysis of serially collected alveolar samples from unvaccinated patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia treated with Auxora versus placebo. We found reductions in plasma levels of the monocyte- and T cell-chemokines, CCL8 and PDGF-AA. Using peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from healthy volunteers, we show that Auxora directly targets T cells to inhibit the transcription of CCL8 and PDGFA in monocyte-derived macrophages, supporting a mechanism for its effects and a potential intermediate biomarker of efficacy.

Non-coding variants are important contributors to human traits and diseases but linking them to molecular mechanisms and phenotypes at scale remains challenging. G-quadruplexes (G4s) are four-stranded structures formed by guanine-rich sequences and have emerged as key functional elements within the non-coding genome. G4s are enriched in regulatory regions and can modulate gene expression at both the DNA and RNA levels, influencing transcription, replication, and RNA processing, positioning them as key mediators linking non-coding variation to complex biological traits. Here, we profile putative G4s across five regulatory regions in 459,449 UK Biobank genomes and perform phenome-wide association analyses spanning 2,941 plasma protein abundances, 13,321 binary traits, and 1,682 quantitative traits. We show that putative G4-modifying variants are depleted under purifying selection despite elevated local mutability and drive large, bidirectional associations with plasma proteins and clinical traits, including associations not captured by coding variants. Using a mechanism-aware collapsing strategy that groups rare non-coding variants by their predicted impact on G4 stability, we achieved stronger gene-level signals than those obtained with standard rare-variant collapsing approaches. Integrating non-coding and protein-truncating variants (PTVs) increases discovery power, revealing 843 significant associations missed by the PTV-only model. Replication in the Alliance for Genomic Discovery cohort demonstrates cross-cohort robustness. Our study suggests G4s as widespread mediators of non-coding regulation and provides a framework for mechanism-informed target discovery and prioritization across the non-coding genome.

Advances in single-cell and spatial assays have revolutionized the scale and resolution of molecular tissue profiling. Here we present MetaPlaq, a multimodal atlas of human atherosclerotic arterial beds comprising over a million cells across single-cell transcriptomics, epigenomics and high-resolution spatial expression assays. We map granular cell states and disease-relevant transcriptional programs within the native tissue context of coronary arteries. Furthermore, we map cardiovascular GWAS signals to smooth muscle cells (SMCs) and endothelial cells (ECs) and uncover the cis-regulatory architecture governing their phenotypic transitions. Our comprehensive epigenomic reference allowed us to build cell-specific enhancer-gene link maps and multimodal gene regulatory networks (GRNs) underlying disease-relevant states such as osteogenic SMCs and ECs undergoing mesenchymal transition. We also integrate SMC and EC disease-associated gene sets with GRNs to nominate key transcription factors such as PRRX1, BNC2 and ELK3 regulating atherosclerosis-relevant transcriptional programs. Finally, we layer single-cell and spatial modalities to fine-map GWAS variants with improved cell and anatomical context. We highlight candidate cell-specific regulatory mechanisms at less characterized CAD loci, including FGD5 and MCF2L in ECs. Together, this atlas represents an important step towards fully interpreting genetic risk loci and informing new therapeutic strategies for cardiovascular disease.

Most routine clinical markers are interpreted using population-based reference intervals, despite being regulated around patient-specific homeostatic setpoints. This mismatch obscures physiologic shifts, inhibiting detection of early disease signatures. Here, we develop a novel Bayesian inference method that adaptively constructs personalized reference intervals using each patients existing health records. In analysis of >100 million lab tests in >800,000 patients, these personalized intervals can be accurately constructed with only minimal prior data, meaning this method can be applied near universally. We show that across 43 common lab markers, patient setpoints are strongly associated with future morbidity, with signal strength increasing as more test data is collected. Deviation from personalized reference intervals provides strong and novel risk signatures across diverse disease states, including hypothyroidism, hematologic cancers, kidney disease, and pregnancy complications. Importantly, personalized reference intervals capture a different risk signature to existing population-based approaches, with the highest risk patients being those who deviate from both intervals simultaneously. In a targeted clinical use case study of iron infusion, use of personalized reference intervals greatly improved prediction of treatment efficacy and allowed precise tracking of treatment responses. Our results illustrate how existing health records can be used to construct personalized benchmarks for nearly all common clinical tests, driving a new paradigm for precision laboratory medicine.

Oropouche virus (OROV) spread across the Americas in 2024, yet Panama Darien migration corridor saw no outbreak until nearly a year after Brazil January 2024 peak, raising two hypotheses: cryptic circulation masked by diagnostic gaps, or recent introduction under permissive climatic conditions. Here we resolve this paradox using integrated clinical, genomic, and climate-informed surveillance. Among 1,040 individuals tested, 43% were OROV-positive and showed a clinical signature distinct from co-circulating arboviruses, including headache more frequent than in dengue (RR 2.38, 95% CI 1.74-3.24). The household secondary attack rate was 56%, and waste burning independently predicted infection. Phylogeographic reconstruction identified a single recent introduction in October 2024 with no evidence of adaptive evolution, excluding prolonged cryptic persistence. Climate-informed models indicate broad outbreak susceptibility across Panama, with Bocas del Toro and Los Santos as the next highest-risk provinces. These findings identify a Central American foothold for OROV with potential for further northward spread.

The course of multiple sclerosis (MS) is highly heterogeneous, yet the biological mechanisms underlying this variability remain incompletely understood. Although metabolic alterations have increasingly been associated with disease progression, existing observational evidence is limited by confounding, reverse causation, and an inability to establish causal mechanisms. To bridge this gap, we used a metabolome-wide Mendelian Randomization (MR) framework, including thorough sensitivity analyses, to identify metabolites genetically linked to MS severity that can causally affect it. Bidirectional MR analyses revealed a subset of amino acid and lipid pathways with strong, consistent effects across different MR approaches, confirmed by tests for heterogeneity, horizontal pleiotropy, and LD confounding. For metabolites prioritized by metabolome-wide MR with evidence of causal effects, we conducted genetic colocalization at loci encompassing proximal enzyme-encoding genes, leveraging the corresponding instrumental variants to assess shared underlying genetic signals. This process revealed shared genetic signals between metabolite levels and MS severity, mapped to the FADS1/2 and CYP4F2 loci. A subsequent pathway-resolved set of cis-MR analyses across FADS1/2-derived polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) metabolites, using a functional variant that proxies reduced {triangleup}5-desaturase activity, showed consistent effects indicating that FADS1 perturbation is associated with MS severity. Collectively, these results highlight FADS1 as a key driver of PUFA-related causal effects on MS severity in both systemic (circulating metabolites) and brain cell-specific contexts. Additional supportive cis-MR evidence implicates the disruption of CYP4F2 as another PUFA-metabolizing enzyme.

Understanding HIV transmission in densely populated urban settings is essential to mitigate ongoing epidemic spread. We present a comprehensive analysis of recent HIV transmission dynamics in Greater Mexico City, one of the worlds largest metropolitan areas comprising Mexico City and neighbouring municipalities of the State of Mexico. Drawing from over 7,000 complete pol gene sequences representing around 50% of new cases reported between 2019 and 2022 within the study region, we reconstructed the transmission network based on pairwise genetic distance. We identified ten large transmission clusters exhibiting sustained growth up to the most recent sampling period. We further analysed paired genetic and high- resolution human mobility data using an integrated phylogeographic approach. We observed a heterogeneous pattern of viral spread across the region, supported by an extensive mixing at a wider geographic scale. Across Greater Mexico City, displaying a high population density, HIV transmission is minimally spatially constrained, a pattern likely fuelled by intense human mobility. Thus, population movement weakens isolation by distance in large urban areas even for a chronic infection that is sexually and vertically transmitted. We demonstrate the value of integrating large-scale genetic, epidemiological, and mobility data to resolve contemporary HIV transmission dynamics in densely populated urban settings

The choroid is critical for maintaining vision and implicated in several ocular diseases, being the sole source of nutrients and waste removal for the outer retina. Genetic discovery can help elucidate the pathways through which choroidal features influence disease risk. Our meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (n= 78,682 participants) identified 30 genomic regions, including 20 novel loci, associated with choroidal thickness. Findings suggest inflammatory and vascular processes drive choroidal thickness, with overlapping mechanisms shared with refractive error. Genome-wide independently significant SNPs accounted for 18.7% of the genetic variance in choroidal thickness. Mendelian randomisation analyses showed a causal effect of age-related macular degeneration on choroidal thickness, and suggest a bidirectional causal effect between choroidal thickness and primary angle-closure glaucoma. These findings provide insight into the shared genetic architecture and biological pathways linking choroidal thickness and related diseases.

Lower cognitive ability measured in childhood or late adolescence has been consistently associated with higher mortality risk across adulthood. However, this evidence largely relies on single assessments, leaving it unclear to what extent mortality risk reflects cognitive differences established early in life versus developmental divergence during adolescence - a period of substantial neurocognitive plasticity. Using two nationally representative Swedish cohorts comprising 9,412 males born in 1948 and 1953, we linked cognitive ability assessed in primary school at age 13 years and military conscription at age 18 years to all-cause and cause-specific mortality recorded in nationwide registers through 2025. We decomposed late-adolescent cognitive ability into childhood cognitive level and adolescent cognitive change and evaluated their independent associations with mortality. Childhood cognitive level (HR = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.78-0.85) and adolescent cognitive change (HR = 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89) independently predicted lower mortality risk, also after adjustment for parental education. Childhood cognitive level and adolescent cognitive change showed partially distinct cause-specific patterns. Childhood cognitive level was most strongly associated with mortality from intrinsic causes, whereas adolescent cognitive change showed relatively stronger associations with external causes, particularly accidental deaths. Although adolescent cognitive change was associated with psychosocial factors including education and psychiatric diagnosis at conscription, its association with mortality persisted after adjustment for these factors. These findings suggest that cognitive development during adolescence carries independent prognostic information regarding long-term survival beyond cognitive level established by late childhood, highlighting adolescence as a consequential period for lifelong health.

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is linked to adverse pregnancy outcomes and increased cardiometabolic risk in offspring, yet the placental mechanisms underlying these risks remain poorly understood. Metformin is prescribed during PCOS pregnancies despite limited mechanistic justification. Using multi-modal molecular analyses of placentas from healthy controls and women with PCOS randomized to placebo or metformin (PregMet trial), restricted to uncomplicated pregnancies, we characterized direct PCOS associated placental alterations independent of confounding complications. PCOS placentas showed transcriptional downregulation across multiple cell types and shifts in cell type proportions. Specifically, syncytiotrophoblasts exhibited reduced expression activity of growth hormone receptor signaling and glycosaminoglycan biosynthesis. Endothelial cells displayed diminished receptor tyrosine kinase pathway activity, including VEGFC, despite increased cell proportion and hypervascularity. Intercellular communication networks were globally suppressed, including reductions in PDGF signaling from Hofbauer cells to fibroblasts. Notably, metformin did not reverse most PCOS-associated molecular alterations and induced transcriptional changes correlated to birth weight and childhood BMI. These findings indicate that PCOS-associated placental features are driven by cell type specific dysregulation of growth factor, angiogenic signaling pathways that are largely unresponsive to metformin. This underscores the need to develop mechanism based, placenta targeted therapeutic alternatives for future pregnancy management.

Using a longitudinal cohort of 633 Gambian children (IHAT-GUT, NCT02941081), we resolve two mechanistically distinct ecological pathways linking Prevotella stercorea to infection risk. Its abundance positively predicts gut microbiome richness, consistent with community-level colonisation resistance for enteric outcomes. However, its association with reduced acute respiratory infection (ARI) persists unchanged after richness adjustment, identifying a species-autonomous pathway independent of community diversity. Weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) is uncorrelated with microbiome richness within strata, supporting WAZ as a proxy for host immune-metabolic reserve rather than a determinant of microbiome composition. In Low-WAZ children, P. stercorea at Day 1 associates with suppressed CRP, whereas in higher-WAZ children, elevated Day 1 inflammation predicts subsequent P. stercorea colonisation at Day 85, consistent with host-context-dependent immune selection. ARI and fever protection is richness-independent and concentrated in Low-WAZ children. P. copri does not retain an independent protective association when modelled jointly. These findings have direct implications for microbiome-directed interventions.

Understanding the regulatory consequences of genetic variation in the aging human brain requires molecular maps that span brain regions, cell types and regulatory modalities. We present the Alzheimer's Disease Sequencing Project Functional Genomics (FunGen-AD) xQTL Atlas, a harmonized resource of molecular quantitative trait loci from four postmortem brain studies, ROSMAP, MSBB, Knight-ADRC and MiGA. The atlas integrates histone acetylation, DNA methylation, gene expression, splicing and protein abundance QTLs across 14 brain regions, 7 major cell types and 17,566 samples, with standardized association, significance-filtered and fine-mapping outputs. To expand discovery beyond conventional 1-Mb cis windows, we include variants within Topologically Associating Domains (TAD) and their boundaries where appropriate, identifying on average 21% more variant-molecular-trait associations per dataset. Statistical fine-mapping reduced broad association sets by 95% into credible sets of candidate regulatory variants. Distributed through the NIAGADS xQTL portal and bulk-download services, the atlas provides a comprehensive functional-genomic foundation for interpreting genetic risk variants in Alzheimer's disease and aging-brain research.

There is substantial interest in understanding neurological impact and recovery over time, but there is a dearth of longitudinal assessment extending from minutes to months surrounding neural system impact. We compared rare intraoperative recordings in three patients, obtained immediately before and after anterior temporal lobe (ATL) resection during a semantic prediction task, with longitudinal source-localized electroencephalography (EEG) obtained 2-6 weeks before and 2 and 6-14 months after surgery. Relative to controls (n = 20), task performance showed sustained impairment in the two left-hemisphere patients and delayed impact in the right-hemisphere patient. Consistent with theory on ipsilateral and contralateral hemisphere compensation, all three patients exhibited bilateral EEG alterations in speech responses and effective connectivity that did not recover to pre-operative levels. Direct comparison of the datasets for intrinsic neurophysiological biomarkers associated with timescales of processing ({tau}INT) and excitatory-inhibitory balance (aperiodic slope, {chi}SPEC) showed a striking months-long reduction in rapid timescale processing and gradually increasing aperiodic slope (e.g., putatively increased cortical inhibition) in the ipsilateral hemisphere of all three patients. Amidst these neurophysiological alterations, task performance did not return to pre-operative levels. These rare longitudinal patient data advance a framework to broadly evaluate neurological impact over multiple timeframes.

Pathway-specific polygenic risk scores (pathway-PRS) measure aggregate genetic risk across single nucleotide variants (SNVs) annotated to genes in a pathway of interest. In most applications, SNV-to-gene annotation is based on SNV position with respect to gene boundaries. This approach is ill-suited for incorporating non-coding SNVs, which can regulate gene expression over long distances and represent a large proportion of risk variants for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Here, we compare the performance of AD pathway-PRS across SNV-to-gene annotation strategies that integrate varying levels of functional genomic data, including adult brain chromatin interaction and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) data. In the UK Biobank (n=328,526), including AD cases defined by ICD-9/10 codes (n=3,043) and by family history of AD/dementia (n=38,589), we show that the annotation strategy integrating chromatin interaction and eQTL data consistently improves pathway-PRS performance. We replicate this finding in independent data from the Alzheimer's Disease Genetics Consortium (n=3,370). We further find that pathway-PRS associations with AD vary by annotation strategy and that power to detect sex-dependent and age-at-onset associations is increased with integrative annotation. Together, these findings support the use of functionally informed SNV-to-gene annotation for pathway-PRS construction and highlight the importance of applying multiple annotation strategies for robust inference.

Pathological activity within frontal cortical circuits is common in many neuropsychiatric disorders, such as obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). We developed an invasive brain mapping protocol in which temporary electrodes are implanted in candidate sites to identify personalized stimulation targets that can acutely relieve OCD symptoms. We found that stimulation within segments of the anterior limb of the internal capsule (ALIC) focally suppressed the structurally and functionally connected region of prefrontal and cingulate cortex. By leveraging the topographic organization of the ALIC, we reversibly inactivated frontal cortical sites with ALIC stimulation to determine which cortical regions are necessary for sustaining OCD symptoms. Stimulation of ventral capsule (VC) near the globus pallidus within the ALIC was associated with suppression of lateral orbitofrontal cortex activity and acute and long-term improvements in OCD symptoms. These results provide a paradigm for leveraging ALIC topography to deliver targeted connectomic neuromodulation to frontal cortex to treat neuropsychiatric disorders.

Biological aging is heterogeneous across organ systems, yet whether CT-derived abdominal aging provides prognostic value beyond routine clinical data and whether organ decomposition adds beyond a unified estimate remains untested. We developed and evaluated organ-specific and ensemble biological age models from radiomic features across five abdominal organs in 68,675 CT scans from 32,883 subjects, evaluated on alignment with chronological age of healthy subjects (nested cross validation: MAE=3.68 years, R^2=0.90). In sequential analyses restricted to adults aged 20-60 years which is the stratum of strongest BAG-disease association, ensemble biological age gaps provided incremental prognostic value beyond demographic covariates for all-cause disease and mortality (Delta C-index=0.141, 0.051) and beyond routine blood biomarkers (Delta C-index=0.048), confirming CT-derived aging captures structural information beyond laboratory markers. Organ-specific biological age added incremental prognostic value beyond ensemble selectively for focal diseases: cardiovascular (aorta, Delta C-index=0.091) and hepato-pancreatic (pancreas, Delta C-index=0.096). These findings establish a hierarchical organization of CT-derived biological aging, positioning routine CT as a source that adds prognostic value to existing clinical biomarkers.

Background: Frontotemporal dementia (FTD) lacks widely accessible disease-specific biomarkers. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) and OCT angiography (OCTA) may provide non-invasive measures of retinal changes associated with neurodegeneration. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis evaluating retinal biomarkers in FTD compared with Alzheimer disease (AD) and controls. Methods: A systematic search of PubMed and Embase was conducted through April 25, 2026 according to PRISMA guidelines. Studies evaluating OCT/OCTA biomarkers in FTD with comparator groups were included. Inverse weighted random-effects models, publication bias assessments, and meta-regressions were performed. Results: Ten studies involving 139 individuals with FTD, 87 with AD, 29 with mild cognitive impairment, 14 with TDP-43 proteinopathy, 5 with tauopathy, and 255 controls were included in the systematic review; five studies were eligible for meta-analysis. Compared with AD, individuals with FTD demonstrated significantly thinner retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness (SMD = -0.61, 95% CI -0.98, -0.24). Compared with controls, individuals with FTD exhibited significantly thinner ganglion cell layer-inner plexiform layer (GCL-IPL) thickness (SMD = -0.55, 95% CI -1.02, -0.08), whereas pooled analyses across multiple retinal biomarkers were non-significant (SMD = -0.19, 95% CI -0.52, 0.14). RNFL thickness correlated negatively with female % in FTD and positively with age in both AD and controls. Conclusions: Individuals with FTD exhibit lower RNFL thickness than AD and lower GCL-IPL thickness than controls, suggesting retinal alterations may reflect neurodegeneration. However, larger longitudinal studies with standardized OCT/OCTA protocols are needed to determine the diagnostic and prognostic utility of retinal biomarkers in FTD